Deliberative Discourse and Information Transmission Under Social Pressure

Social rewards and sanctions influence what political opinions people express or withhold. Therefore, they may distort perceptions of public opinion if observers fail to account for these incentives. In two online discussion experiments, we assess how well observers (Decoders) can infer the distribution of private opinions among potential speakers (Encoders). Contrary to expectations, we find that Decoders are most accurate when our social incentives are strongest. Decoders are relatively capable of recognizing and adjusting for social desirability bias and self-censorship, compared to other sources of distortion, such as reluctance to share unoriginal opinions, which arise when we minimize peer incentives.